The A1FI (Business as Usual/Fossil Fuel Intensive Pathway) leads to the most sea level rise and temperature change. This pathway assumes that humans do not reduce their dependency on fossil fuels and continue on high economic growth pathway. By 2100, Earth’s average temperature will increase by 5 degrees Celsius which is well above the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5 degrees (UNCC, 2018).
The result is an average sea level increase of 60cm by 2100 and as high as 90cm. The resulting impact floods most of Vancouver’s limited agriculture area as well as light industrial lands on the Fraser. Stanley Park is also heavily impacted. Under 2050 sea level rise conditions and above, all of Vancouver’s zoning areas with the exception of “Other” will see some land lost due to sea level rise with impacts increasing into the future and through King Tide events which add up to an extra one metre of rise. Single Family areas and Comprehensive Development zones are the most impacted.
Vancouver will lose up to seven square kilometres in a king tide event in 2100 with four square kilometres being submerged under average sea level rise. Businesses and residents in the impacted area will need additional flood mitigation measures or be relocated entirely.
References
UNCC. (2018). The Paris Agreement. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement