Project Description
This project aims to investigate the impact of sea level rise on the City of Vancouver on its existing land use and communities over time between 2030 and 2100 depending on the emission scenarios outlined by the IPCC. This report looks at four emission scenarios: A1FI (Business as Usual/Fossil Fuel Intensive), A1T (Technological Sustainability/Alternative Energy), and B2 (local and regional solutions to sustainability). The project also factors in king tide events to investigate future flood areas.
Background
The City of Vancouver is actively investigating the impact of sea level rise on its coastal community. The City expects sea levels to rise by a half a metre by 2050 and one metre by 2100 (City of Vancouver, 2018). Sea levels also adjust based on heavy rainstorm events and king tides (City of Vancouver, 2018). King tides occur three to four times a year when the sun and the moon are in alignment amplifying tidal effects (City of Vancouver, 2018). This can lead to an increase of 50-100cm on top of existing sea levels and tides (City of Vancouver, 2018). The City is actively tracking existing king tides to map out the future extent of sea level rise based on a prediction of half a metre by 2050 and a full metre by 2100 (Hernandez, 2018). Residents, businesses and government will need to prepare for a future where parts of Vancouver will be underwater.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has created emission models between now and 2100 based on future projections and assumptions on methods used to reduce GHG emissions. Each model tells a “narrative” based on these assumptions about economic growth and societal values (IPCC, 2000). These scenarios can be used to model what the world will looking if humanity makes certain changes to our energy systems and consumption patterns. A1 scenarios tell a narrative about rapid economic and population growth with technological changes coming in the latter half of this century. The A1FI scenario can be described as the business as usual scenario with an increase in overall GHG emissions (IPCC, 2000). This scenario is fossil fuel reliant. The A1T scenario describes a world with renewable energy and innovations that decrease GHG emissions in the latter half of the century (IPCC, 2000). The B2 scenario describes a world focused on local and regional development of sustainability practices (instead of global) to reduce overall emissions and limit increasing temperatures and sea level rise (IPCC, 2000). All models result in some sea level rise which have financial impacts on infrastructure.
Policy Implications
Vancouver and its residents will need to prepare for the impacts of rising waters, especially for individuals who own property near the coast. This analysis will provide information based on different scenarios for sea level rise in the future which may help policy-makers target areas most affected by sea level rise. Moreover, Vancouver will need to upgrade existing flood infrastructure to handle greater flood extents as well as mitigating impacts of sea level rise on public property an infrastructure. A robust projection with different scenarios will allow decision-makers to prepare long-term mitigation practices and policies as we move into the future as well as cost projections.
References
City of Vancouver. (2018). Vancouver’s Changing Shoreline | Preparing for Sea Level Rise. Retrieved from https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/vancouvers-changing-shoreline-june-2018.pdf
Hernandez, J. (2018).King tide floods part of Vancouver’s seawall, offering glimpse into city’s future. Retrieved from https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/king-tide-floods-part-of-vancouver-s-seawall-offering-glimpse-into-city-s-future-1.4926678
IPCC. (2002). IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenarios Summary for Policy-Makers. Retrieved from https://ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf